Statistics Canada August crop estimates put production back in-line with average

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Perhaps not overly surprising due to the extreme drought conditions that plagued the Prairies last growing season, but Statistics Canada is estimating that crop production across the nation will be up by at least 50 per cent this fall.

Stats Can, which is moving towards using alternate data methods outside of farmer surveys to obtain crop statistics, says despite the variability in weather conditions throughout the growing season, most producers received adequate moisture to pull off a satisfactory crop. A hot and dry August in central and southwestern Saskatchewan did however deteriorate yields in those areas with growers likely seeing less in the bin than anticipated at the beginning of the month.

Broken down by crop, the estimates show the following year-over-year analysis.

Wheat:

  • Nationally
    • Projected production up by 34.7 million tonnes, a 55.6 per cent increase from 2021
    • Yields up by 42.1 per cent to 51.3 bu/ac – putting it in line with the five year average (2016-2020) of 51 bu/ac
    • Total harvested acres up 9.4 per cent to 24.9 million acres
    • Increases mostly attributed to increase in spring wheat yield and acres
  • Provincially
    • Alberta, projected to increase by 80.1 per cent to 11.6 million tonnes, which is largely the result of higher yields (+64.9 per cent to 57.4 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 9.3 per cent to 7.4 million acres.
    • Saskatchewan, expected to rise by 54.8 per cent to 43.5 bushels per acre in 2022, while harvested area is projected to rise by 12.5 per cent, resulting in a 74.0 per cent increase in production to 15.4 million tonnes.
    • Manitoba, wheat harvested area is expected to rise by 11.4 per cent to 3.2 million acres, while yields are anticipated to increase by 23.8 per cent to 59.3 bushels per acre. Total wheat production is anticipated to rise by 37.8 per cent year over year to 5.2 million tonnes.
    • Ontario, (the majority of which is winter wheat) is projected to fall by 22.7 per cent to 2.2 million tonnes year over year in 2022 as a result of lower harvested acres (-20.6 per cent) and yields (-2.7 per cent).

Canola:

  • Nationally
    • Projected production is up by 19.1 million tonnes, a 38.8 per cent increase from 2021
    • Yields up by 44.9 per cent to 39.7 bu/ac – which is lower than the five year (2016-2020) average of 41.5 bu/ac
  • Provincially
    • Alberta is expected to increase by 40.3 per cent to 6.1 million tonnes. Higher yields (+44.3 per cent to 41.7 bushels per acre) are expected to offset the decrease in harvested area (-2.8 per cent to 6.4 million acres).
    • Saskatchewan is expected to produce 43.5 per cent more canola in 2022 than in 2021, at 9.7 million tonnes. Yields are projected to increase by 51.2 per cent to 37.8 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to fall by 5.1 per cent to 11.3 million acres.
    • Manitoba, yields are expected to rise by 30.0 per cent to 42.5 bushels per acre, offsetting a projected 3.8 per cent decrease in harvested area to 3.3 million acres, resulting in a 25.0 per cent production increase to 3.1 million tonnes.

Corn for Grain:

  • Nationally
    • Projected production is up by 14.9 million tonnes, a 6.3 per cent increase over 2021
    • Yields up by 2.6 per cent to 164.3 bu/ac
    • Harvested acres are expected to rise by 3.6 per cent to 3.6 million acres
  • Provincially
    • Ontario, the largest corn for grain-producing province, production is expected to rise by 3.5 per cent to 9.8 million tonnes on higher harvested area (+5.0 per cent to 2.2 million acres), offsetting lower yields (-1.5 per cent to 172.6 bushels per acre).
    • Quebec is projected to rise by 3.9 per cent to 3.6 million tonnes. Yields are expected to rise by 3.3 per cent to 157.7 bushels per acre, while harvested area is expected to edge up by 0.6 per cent to 887,400 acres.

Soybeans:

  • Nationally
    • Projected production is up by 6.5 million tonnes, a 3.7 per cent increase from 2021
    • Yields up by 5.5 per cent to 46.1 bu/ac
    • Harvested acres is anticipated to decrease by 1.7 per cent to 5.2 million acres
  • Provincially
    • Manitoba, soybean production is projected to increase by 23.7 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes in 2022. Harvested area is projected to decrease by 14.3 per cent to 1.1 million acres. However, yields are projected to rise by 44.3 per cent year over year to 39.1 bushels per acre because moisture conditions have improved.
    • Ontario is expected to edge up 0.7 per cent in 2022 to 4.1 million tonnes. Harvested area is expected to rise by 5.5 per cent to 3.1 million acres, while yields are anticipated to fall 4.5 per cent to 49.3 bushels per acre.
    • Quebec, soybean production is projected to increase by 4.7 per cent to 1.2 million tonnes on higher anticipated yields (+0.9 per cent to 44.6 bushels per acre), while harvested area is expected to rise by 3.7 per cent to 950,900 acres.

Barley:

  • Yields are anticipated to rise to 68.4 bu/ac, a 59.1 per cent increase over 2021
  • Total harvest barley acres however, is expected to decline from 2021 by 14.8 per cent to 6.3 million acres
  • Overall production increase estimated at 9.4 million tonnes, a 35.5 per cent increase over last year

Oats:

  • Yields to increase by 50 per cent to 93.9 bu/ac
  • Harvested acres to increase by 10.6 per cent from 2021 to 3.2 million acres
  • Overall projected production is estimated at an increase of 65.7 per cent to 4.7 million tonnes.

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